Sadr city under siege

Mike Nadeau said:

I think we’ll see Al-Sadr control the country, sooner rather than later. I could see him moving more towards political legitimacy.

Thanks for the comment Mike.

Al-Sadr’s position in Iraqi politics is one of the most fascinating stories going on. The extent to which he is an independent operator or Iranian puppet is really still to be decided.

His role in supporting the current Shiite PM is critical to the govt.’s legitimacy in the Shiite community.

What is more immediately worth keeping an eye on is how the U.S. troop surge in Baghdad will avoid or not avoid stepping on his toes. And likewise to what extent will he reign in his militia.

Today, it’s being reported that his Baghdad strongholds are being swarmed by Iraqi and U.S. troops.

The York Dispatch reports:

BAGHDAD, Iraq — U.S. and Iraqi forces staged raids in Baghdad’s main Shiite militant stronghold today as part of politically sensitive forays into areas loyal to radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. Troops have held back on broad sweeps through the teeming Sadr City slums since a major security operation began earlier this month, targeting militant factions and sectarian death squads that have ruled Baghdad’s streets.

Al-Sadr withdrew his powerful Mahdi Army militia from checkpoints and bases under intense government pressure to let the neighbor-by-neighbor security sweeps move ahead. But Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and others have opposed extensive U.S.-led patrols through Sadr City, fearing a violent backlash could derail the security effort.

Draft of Oil Law

Just as violence threatens to overwhelm the political process in Iraq, the parliament showed signs of life and political compromise today by passing the first draft of a law to determine how the oil industry will be organized.

The NYTimes reports:

“The draft oil law says that all revenues from current and future oil fields will be collected by the central government and redistributed to regional or provincial governments by population, in theory ensuring an equitable distribution of oil. This could help calm Sunni Arabs hostile to Kurdish and Shiite autonomy.”

Drafting the law is only the first step in putting it into practice. And as the BBC reported, this draft was two months behind schedule, however, one still has to see this as an important development in a country with so few signs of progress.

And it’s always a nice thought that we won’t have to see this anymore:

P.S. these are kuwaiti oil fields burnt by Saddam, but what’s the dif.

Political waves

If you believe, as most do, that the only solution in Iraq is a political one, then this weekend brought some good and bad news about the leadership there.

The powerful militia leader, Moktada Al-Sadr, was reported as both helping the coalition’s new security plan while denouncing it.

A statement from the militia warned its followers:

“There is no good that comes from a security plan controlled by our enemies, the occupiers… If you stay away from them, God will protect you from horror and harm. Make sure your plans are purely Iraqi and not sectarian.”

Iraqi president Talabani had to leave the country because of health problems. It seems that it was work fatigue and not the heart attack that was originally reported.

And just as a Sunni cleric asked for peace, his mosque was bombed, exposing new rifts within the Sunni community.

Then today we hear news that the Shiite VP narrowly escaped an assassination attempt.

All of these developments were at the forefront of the violence that continues to plague the country.

And another

I promise I’ll control myself

video I found

Have no idea who made this or what it means, just incredible stuff like this on youtube.

also thought it was cool i figured out how to do this;-)

sign language

Another U.S. helicopter was shot down yesterday in Iraq. Today come reports that two suspects connected to the recent trend of downed helicopters are in the custody of the U.S. army. Evidence seems to point to connections between all 8 downed copters.

Meanwhile a new insurgent tactic is coming under close scrutiny. These murderers are filling trucks with chlorine and driving them into crowds. The U.S. reports to have found empty chlorine canisters in a raid in Fallujah.

Gen. Odierno on the ground is widely quoted as saying these are not signs that the insurgency is becoming more sophisticated, rather it is simply changing tactics:

“What they’re trying to do is try to adapt in such ways where they can continue to create instability. And that’s what they’re doing.”

to be continued..

the anti-surge

Just as Prince Harry is getting his boots laced for a tour with his fellow Brits in Iraq, outgoing PM Tony Blair announces that up to 1700 of his country’s troops will start coming home.

With the announcement came a furious spin battle as to what the British withdrawal means.

Tony Snow made it seem like they were leaving because they were no longer necessary:

“They’ve made some progress on the ground.”

Haystack sees the situation in similarly rosy hues. Heck, if only we could stand down too, right? Man, those Brits are lucky.

As, ahem, convincing as that argument might be for some, others see it as an obfuscation of reality.

Meanwhile, Democrats are licking their lips at what they see as the triumph of political pressure on a bellicose leader(i.e. Blair).

Leaving us all to wonder who will benefit from the British withdrawal from the coalition of the willing, while we are forced to even more desperate measures to increase our own presence.

ch-ch-ch-changes

Why it is so hard to fight an insurgency.

Are these the desperate tactics of an enemy being pressed and cornered or one reaching greater levels of sophistication?

The NY Times reports:

“In a rare coordinated assault on an American combat outpost north of Baghdad, suicide bombers drove one or more cars laden with explosives into the compound on Monday, while other insurgents opened fire in the ensuing chaos, according to witnesses and the American military. Two American soldiers were killed and at least 17 were wounded.”

Driving truck bombs into crowds isn’t new, it is the level of coordination. Also new is that insurgents are directly confronting coalition troops, something they have avoided in the past.

The BBC tried to look ahead at how the new security plan is trying to deal with the violence in Baghdad and the very real concerns that they might not have what it takes to do so.

But, how is it going?

A brief lull in the level of violence in Baghdad over the weekend gave many hope that the first wave of the surge and new security plan was having an effect on the ground.Iraq the Model blogged from the scene:

“Sunday, February 18, 2007

Attacks in Baghdad down by 80%
Since the multiple bombings in Shroja market district on the 12th, Baghdad hasn’t seen any major attacks and there’s a tangible decrease in all kinds of attacks.

Not only official statements say so (Defense ministry officials said today that attacks are down by 80% in Baghdad). It’s a reality I live in nowadays, at least in my neighborhood and its surroundings. It is also what I hear from friends and relatives in other parts of the city.
We are hearing fewer explosions and less gunfire now than two weeks ago and that, in Baghdad, qualifies as quiet.

I agree with what some experts say about this lull in violence being the result of militants keeping their heads down for a while. It is also possibly the result of the flight of the commanders of militant groups. Grunts left without planners, money or leaders wouldn’t want to do much on their own.”

By today it became evident that the lull was an illusion.

What is becoming all too apparent and clear is that the enemies’ capabilities and strategies have evolved quickly during this almost 4 year war.

The NyTimes said:

“Officials say they are a fresh indication that the United States is facing an array of “adaptive” adversaries in Iraq, enemies who are likely to step up their attacks as American forces expand their efforts to secure Baghdad, the Iraqi capital.”

As much was concluded in the recent NIE.

The enemy is also becoming more brazen as to where they attack. The recent attack on a coalition outpost shows they are no longer content picking off hummers with I.E.D.’s. All the downed helicopters of the past months are evidence to that as well.

But just as the momentary decrease in violence over the weekend was no indication of the success of the surge, the new attacks and bombings are not its death-bell either.

One just hopes we are adapting faster that they are to this dynamic fight.

Resolution bottleneck

After the House passed their two sentence resolution yesterday after four days of debate, the Senate in a rare Saturday session voted against going forward to debate and vote on that same resolution.

Although 7 Republicans went along with the Democrats they still fell short of the 60 vote threshold.

For the foreseeable future, the newly elected Democratic majority is thwarted in making an impact on the surge or the greater war in Iraq.

John McCain made some waves with his no show/vote.

The framing of today’s vote has already begun. Were the Democrats defeated, or did they force the Republicans to show they are unwilling to oppose the unpopular surge? Are the Republicans stubbornly blocking the debate or asserting their minority rights?

Disparate blogosphere voices are generally fed up with the Senate’s gridlock on a NON-BINDING resolution about the most important issue of our day.